Oblivion, your maths are great, but your genetics are way out...
Chromosomes can and will recombine, (that is why they are in pairs) that is why after very few generations, if you had an animal which was predicted to be at around 25% wolf content by the method described previously will really have a genetic content much closer to 25% than you would actually predict with your model (the distribution curve would really be much more narrow than you predict). I'm too lazy to do the actual maths, but the end result is that the number "predicted" is actually not too far away from what would be expected from random crosses.
Except of course... we don't breed wolfdogs from random crosses, but rather we positively select for traits we find desireable and negatively select for those which we find undesireable. (without counting the selection which we do not control, ie those pups which are never born because they are simply not viable) That is why as Pavel pointed out the number which we get from the calculation is basically just that... a number. Pretty but if you plan to predict how your dog is going to behave or look or ... well anything... it won't work. That number has virtually no predictive value. (Hope that this clarifies a few things)
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